Encircling Iran by maintaining its military presence in five of the seven countries sharing borders with Iran, the US is already working overtime to neutralize Iran’s nuclear programme with threats or coaxing. Whereas, Israel, all the time, is cajoling US for some tangible action beyond sanctions but the bare reality facing the world is very unpalatable: any US and Iran showdown will prove diabolically disastrous to the whole world.

Israel Vocal Proponent of US and Iran Showdown

Israel has been very vocal proponent of aerial strikes inside Iran to kill Iran’s nuclear programme. However, no one, none even in Israel’s military intelligentsia, can guarantee that the effects of possible aerial strikes on nuclear installations inside Iran are restricted and that the aftermaths of such strikes will not spiral out of proportion endangering the US-Israel interests in the region.

In the heat of incrimination, intimidation, and coercion, which has quite risen since (Dec. 28, 2009) Mr Obama expressed his displeasure over the slow pace of progress on the issue, mainly, according to him, due to the intransigence of Iran, the war enthusiasts in the US and Israel should not lose sight of certain facts that call for perceptive attitude towards the problem.

War Mongers Kept in Check

There are certain factors that govern Iran’s nuclear programme and its war theatre so that ambitions of war mongers in Israel and the US have been kept in check. War-mongering pro-Israel lobby in the US has been bracketing Iran and Al-Qaeda together ignoring the fact that Iran being a Shia Muslim state does not accede to extremist Wahabi cult of Al-Qaeda.

Harping on the same tune with Israel, these Israeli lobbyists and their proponents in the US brand Hezbollah as a terrorist group ignoring the fact that Hezbollah has substantial political standing in Lebanon and that it is part of the coalition government there and that it is a nationalist party whose major agenda is to protect Lebanon from Israeli hegemonic designs. Intriguingly the same lobbyists, behind the rhetorical façade, would do business with terrorist organizations such as Mujahedeen Khalq in Iraq as it supports their campaign for regime change in Iran.

The war mongers in the State Department and the Pentagon seem to believe in that “every thing is fair in love and war” and fortunately they are not able to get American public support for any such undertaking. Islamic as well as any other society that is structured on humanitarian and just principles cannot and does not support any such proposition.

There are certain factors of Iran’s ‘nuclear triangle’ which so far seem to have stalled action in the Gulf and kept US-Israeli desperadoes in the war offices at bay albeit the drum beat of aggression against Iran, at times, have risen to all heights.

Iran’s Geo-strategic position in the Gulf

Iran’s geo-strategic position which is a natural asset that cannot be ignored. The very first consequence of any adventurism against Iran will be the obstruction of flow of oil through Persian Gulf. Once set in motion it will be beyond US potentialities to contain the conflagration and minimize its effect across the globe. In 1973 an Arab embargo sent oil prices soaring, and a global recession followed. In 1979 the Iranian revolution provoked a second surge in oil prices, and another global recession. The impact on oil prices and its flow during Desert Storm was offset by joint efforts and extensive preplanning on the part of great many nations.

The US must understand that its partial success in Iraq so far has been due to Iran and Syria’s quiet and other surrounding countries’ active support; otherwise, it would still have been fighting in Iraq but not as an occupation force. World’s oil flow through Persian Gulf amounts to a substantial percentage that can affect most economies of the world. Considering the current price around $ 90 per barrel, the post-strike price whirlwind is everybody’s guess.