Syed Javed Hussain
Anti Iran enthusiasts in the US hope that one day Iran will witness yet another homegrown revolution of its own and get rid of the Mullah (Clergy) enjoying sweeping powers there. A reality check, however, tells entirely a different story and reveals why regime change in Iran is not an option. On the other hand general perception in the lands of Islam regarding the West is not so palatable; which, given the threats of extremism and terrorism faced by the world, needs to change.
Iran Eager to Solve Nuclear Issue Amicably
After remaining apologetic and defensive for many years on its nuclear programme, Iran is exerting and showing muscles now but at the same time it has made known its eagerness to take the issue to its logical conclusion.
According to its leaders Iran simply wants to bare the truth behind West’s illogical attitude towards the Islamic regime. Iran believes that West’s attitude towards Iran under Waliat-e Faqih (Rule of the Clergy) will continue to be so even after the nuclear issue has been resolved.
The pattern is not unlike it was before West’s attack on Iraq when lies after lies were hurled on Iraq to create an atmosphere for aggression; regime change was never mentioned.
Why Regime Change is Not A Possible Option?
However, unlike Iraq , five variables make it difficult, rather very thorny, for the West under the US leadership to affect the regime change in Iran.
Firstly, despite all negative propaganda, in the Western media, the current government of Ahmedi Nijad has substantial support of people in Iran. Sporadic anti government processions occasionally turning into bloody campaign can be a great fodder for anti regime propaganda machines abroad, they are rarely condoned as legitimate acts on part of opposition at home.
Syestem of Governance: Waliat-e Faqih
Secondly, the system of governance, Waliat-e Faqih, which is a novel experience in any Islamic country, is a pioneering fixture of Islamic polity in Iran. After thirty years of gruelling challenges, it has gained legitimacy and acceptance among the dominant majority of Iranian populace.
Even the opposition, which according to many Iranians has so injudiciously been propped up in the West, accepts this system and can’t dare challenge the veracity and integrity of the Leader. Therefore, as long as Waliat-e Faqih is popular among the people, there as well is no threat to Mr. Ahmedi Nijad who has full backing of Imam Syed Khamenei.
Duality of the Status of Khamenei
Thirdly, duality of his status as a political and religious leader of Shia Muslims all across the globe makes Khamenei one of the most powerful men in the world.
His political standing and credentials due to his personal honesty, piety and integrity stand him in good stead. His position as a political leader of Iran is stable across the board.
Religiously, his position as grand Ayatollah earns him devotion and respect from tens of millions of people at home and abroad in all the nations of the world.
US is Handicapped by Factors Beyond its Control
Fourthly, the US is handicapped by factors beyond its control. Due to certain variables all past efforts of the US for regime change in Iran since 1979 have proved futile.
Anti American public opinion is so strong in Iran that avowed US support for any group in Iran proves a poisoned chalice for it. It is quite convenient for every regime in Iran to deflect people’s anger, even if it is due to government’s own failures, on America and other hegemonic powers in the West.
Governments in Tehran feel justified in doing so. The country is under excruciating sanctions. Due to which trade and commerce has fallen to all time low. Talks of Israeli and American aerial strikes have reduced foreign investment to zero. New businesses cannot be started, the old ones are barely surviving, and currency is crashing eating up government’s huge resources. Future projections, if the same Western antagonism continues, are hardly heartening.
Despite this gloomy picture there is no threat to the regime. People are enlightened enough to point the finger of blame correctly. People’s resilience, rather, has become regime’s point of strength.
Iran Goes From Strength to Strength by Default
Fifthly, since the US intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq , Iran has gone from strength to strength by default. With the threat of inimical regimes on its flanks gone, Iran has emerged as more powerful an entity in the region than it was in the presence of Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam in Iraq.
Conversely, at regional level, the US and the West’s strategic win in both countries is placed at the mercy of Iran . On its part Iran ’s current regime, which both the West as well the US wants to change, is supporting every effort to bring peace and stability to these countries. Iran is playing by rules and is not hitting below the belt.
This, however, is not being recognised in the West. It is taken as weakness on part of Iran and success of West’s coercive policies. Iran passes it over for a better future as stable region benefits Iran more than any other prospect.
Despite all debilitating and destabilising uproar in and around Iran, the country’s core structure of governance remains intact. West’s adamant refusal to learn lessons from its past mistakes in handling Iran is not helping any party a bit.
The West Needs to Abandon its ‘Hobson’s Choice’
The West’s persistent antagonism against Iran is shown through the magnitude and scale of coverage it gives to all anti regime rioting in Iran.
The West myopically pins its hopes of regime change on these small time rioters on the streets of Tehran; bias certainly creates make-beliefs and prevents people from making informed decisions. It requires an internal dialogue on part of the West to untie its own psychological knots on Iran and abandon its ‘Hobson’s choice.’
Information
A reality check on Iran tells that despite arduous attempts on part of the US, regime change in Iran is not an option for it to pursue.
First appeared in the Suite101 on Nov 24, 2010